1Short Answer
A bag has only red balls. If you reach in without looking, what color ball will you get?
2Multiple Choice
The sun is shining outside. Is it likely, unlikely, or certain that it is daytime?
3Circle Choice
Circle the word that tells what happens most often: likely or unlikely.
4Short Answer
A box has 1 blue crayon and 5 yellow crayons. Which crayon are you more likely to pick?
5Short Answer
Toss a coin. Can it land on heads or tails?
6Multiple Choice
A jar has 2 green marbles and 2 green marbles. Is drawing a green marble certain, likely, or unlikely?
7Multiple Choice
Which is more likely to be chosen from a basket: 1 apple or 4 apples?
8Short Answer
A class has 3 toy cars and 1 toy truck. Which toy is less likely to be picked?
9Drawing/Selection
Draw a circle around the picture that would be likely to happen: a basket with many bananas or a basket with one banana.
10Short Answer
If you close your eyes and pick a picture card from 5 cat cards, will you get a cat?
11Short Answer
A spinner has 1 star and 3 hearts. Which shape is more likely to land on top?
12Short Answer
A bag has 2 socks: 1 red and 1 red. What color sock will you pick?
13Multiple Choice
Which is unlikely to happen? A) Picking a ball from a jar with 1 ball. B) Picking a ball from a jar with no balls.
14Short Answer
There are 4 goldfish stickers and 2 turtle stickers. Which sticker is more likely to be picked?
15Multiple Choice
A picnic basket has 3 red apples and 3 red apples. Is picking a red apple likely, unlikely, or certain?
16Short Answer
Look at two groups: 1 teddy bear and 5 teddy bears. Which group has more?
17Short Answer
If you roll a toy cube with pictures of a cat on every side, what picture will you see?
18Multiple Choice
A box has 1 orange crayon and 6 orange crayons. Which answer is true? A) Orange is likely. B) Orange is unlikely.
19Short Answer
A teacher puts 2 pink buttons and 5 blue buttons in a cup. Which button are you more likely to pull out?
20Short Answer
A bag has only green apples. Is getting a green apple certain?
21Short Answer
Which group is less likely to be picked? 1 star sticker or 4 star stickers
22Short Answer
A spinner has 2 smiley faces and 1 sad face. Which face is more likely to land on top?
23Short Answer
A basket has 3 pears, 1 pear, and 1 pear. How many pears are there altogether?
24Short Answer
A jar has 4 red marbles and 1 blue marble. Is picking a blue marble likely or unlikely?
25Short Answer
If you choose one sticker from 2 apple stickers and 5 apple stickers, which group is more likely to be picked?
26Short Answer
A toy box has 3 cars, 3 cars, and 3 cars. Is picking a car certain?
27Circle Choice
Circle the word that fits: If something happens many times, it is more likely or less likely?
28Short Answer
A basket has 2 oranges and 6 bananas. Which fruit is more likely to be picked?
29Short Answer
A bag has 1 toy frog and 1 toy frog. What toy will you get?
30Short Answer
Which is likely to happen: picking a red pencil from 5 red pencils, or picking a red pencil from 1 red pencil and 4 blue pencils?
31Short Answer
A class bowl has 7 crackers and 2 grapes. Which food is less likely to be picked?
32Short Answer
A spinner shows only circles. If you spin it, what shape will you get?
33Short Answer
A bag has 2 red, 2 blue, and 2 yellow balls. Is picking any one color certain?
34Short Answer
There are 1 bunny toy and 4 bunny toys. Which group is more likely to be chosen?
35Short Answer
A weather picture shows one cloud with rain drops. Is rain likely, unlikely, or certain?
36Short Answer
If you pick from a bag with 5 socks and 1 sock is striped, is the striped sock likely or unlikely?
37Short Answer
A box has 4 toy ducks and 4 toy ducks. What toy will you pick?
38Short Answer
Which is more likely: choosing a ball from a jar with 6 balls, or choosing a ball from a jar with 1 ball?
39Short Answer
Look at the groups: 1 puppy and 3 puppies. Which word describes picking a puppy from the bigger group?
40Short Answer
A class has 2 red hats, 2 blue hats, and 2 green hats. Is one color more likely than the others?
Answer Key
Teacher Notes:
This worksheet introduces early probability through everyday, concrete examples. Use real objects such as blocks, buttons, or picture cards when possible. Model the words certain, likely, and unlikely before students begin. Suggested classroom use: whole-group introduction, small-group practice, or independent center work. Differentiation: Support struggling learners with real items and verbal choices; challenge advanced learners to explain why one choice is more likely using counts or pictures. Extension: Have students create their own spinner, bag, or picture set and predict outcomes.
| # | Answer | Explanation |
|---|
| 1 | Red | If all the balls are red, getting a red ball is certain. |
| 2 | Certain | When the sun is shining, it is daytime. |
| 3 | Likely | Likely means it will happen more often. |
| 4 | Yellow crayon | There are more yellow crayons, so yellow is more likely. |
| 5 | Yes | A coin has two possible outcomes: heads or tails. |
| 6 | Certain | All the marbles are green, so green is certain. |
| 7 | 4 apples | The bigger group is more likely to be picked. |
| 8 | Toy truck | There is only one truck, so it is less likely. |
| 9 | A basket with many bananas | The larger group is more likely to be chosen. |
| 10 | Yes | All the cards are cats, so getting a cat is certain. |
| 11 | Heart | There are more hearts than stars. |
| 12 | Red | Both socks are red, so red is certain. |
| 13 | B | You cannot pick a ball from an empty jar. |
| 14 | Goldfish sticker | There are more goldfish stickers. |
| 15 | Certain | All the apples are red. |
| 16 | 5 teddy bears | Five is more than one. |
| 17 | Cat | Every side shows a cat, so cat is certain. |
| 18 | A | There are many orange crayons, so orange is likely. |
| 19 | Blue button | There are more blue buttons than pink buttons. |
| 20 | Yes | If every apple is green, green is certain. |
| 21 | 1 star sticker | The smaller group is less likely. |
| 22 | Smiley face | There are more smiley faces. |
| 23 | 5 pears | Count them all: 3 + 1 + 1 = 5. |
| 24 | Unlikely | There is only one blue marble, so blue is less likely. |
| 25 | 5 apple stickers | The larger group is more likely. |
| 26 | Yes | All of the toys are cars. |
| 27 | More likely | Many chances make an event more likely. |
| 28 | Banana | There are more bananas than oranges. |
| 29 | Toy frog | Both toys are frogs, so frog is certain. |
| 30 | Picking a red pencil from 5 red pencils | If all the pencils are red, red is certain and more likely. |
| 31 | Grapes | There are fewer grapes than crackers. |
| 32 | Circle | Only circles are on the spinner. |
| 33 | No | There are different colors, so no single color is certain. |
| 34 | 4 bunny toys | The group with more items is more likely. |
| 35 | Likely | Rain drops in the picture suggest rain is likely. |
| 36 | Unlikely | There is only one striped sock, so it is less likely. |
| 37 | Toy duck | All the toys are ducks. |
| 38 | Choosing a ball from a jar with 6 balls | More balls means a ball is more likely to be picked. |
| 39 | Likely | The bigger group makes puppy more likely. |
| 40 | No | The groups are equal, so each color is equally likely. |