Probability | Small Group
Students will use movement-based games and simple sports-style activities to explore probability by predicting outcomes, testing results, and comparing likely, unlikely, and equally likely events in small groups.
| Term | Definition |
|---|---|
| Probability | How likely it is that something will happen. |
| Likely | Something that has a good chance of happening. |
| Unlikely | Something that does not have a good chance of happening. |
| Equally likely | Two or more outcomes that have the same chance of happening. |
| Outcome | What happens after a choice, roll, or action. |
| Trial | One test or round of a game or experiment. |
Lead a quick movement warm-up. Ask students to move around the space and stop on signal. Introduce the idea that in games we can predict what might happen before we play.
Warm up with simple movements, listen for signals, and share quick guesses about what might happen in each activity.
Model the vocabulary using a simple example such as rolling a die or tossing a beanbag into one of two targets. Ask students to identify which outcome is likely, unlikely, or equally likely and why.
Listen, repeat the vocabulary, and answer teacher questions using the new words.
Set up targets of different sizes or distances. Groups predict which target is more likely to be hit, then complete 10 tosses and record results.
Work in small groups to make predictions, take turns tossing, and record which target is hit each time.
Create a game with two or three movement choices based on a spinner or die, such as jump, skip, or hop. Guide students to predict which movement will happen most often and test it over several trials.
Spin or roll, complete the matching movement, and tally results with group members.
Label four corners or areas in the gym with different probabilities, such as one corner for 1, two corners for 2, etc. Students toss or roll a number cube and move to the matching area, then compare how often each area was chosen.
Participate in the challenge, move quickly to the correct area, and record the outcomes.
Bring groups together to compare predictions with results. Ask which events were likely, unlikely, or equally likely and how the data helped them decide.
Share observations, compare results, and explain whether their predictions matched the outcomes.
Review the key idea that probability helps us make predictions, but repeated trials show what actually happened. Celebrate the best group explanations and connect the lesson to sports and games where players predict outcomes before acting.
At home, choose one simple action with an outcome, such as flipping a coin or rolling a die. Predict the result 10 times, record what happens, and write 2-3 sentences explaining whether the outcomes were likely, unlikely, or equally likely.